Ngabe iChinaUmhlaba ongavamileAmanani akhuphuka ngokungafanele ngemuva kokukhethwa kukaTrump? Umbiko wokucwaninga weCitic Securities ukhombisa ukuthi izintengo zeImikhiqizo Yomhlaba EngavamileUqhubeke nokukhuphuka muva nje, futhi imboni yomhlaba engavamile ingahle iguquke, ibe yindawo eshisayo emakethe yamanje yesabelo. Abanye abatshalizimali abanethembayo bakholelwa ukuthi amanani angakhuphuka amahlandla ayi-10 ngokuzayo. Ngakho-ke ukhetho luzobe luphi umthelela emhlabeni wezwe elingajwayelekile?
Ngolwazi lwangaphambilini kanye nezinkulumo eziphambili zomkhankaso, singazi ukuthi i-United States izokhulisa amanani entela azokwengeza zonke izimpahla ezingenisiwe ngo-20% ngokuzayo, futhi zizobeka amanani entela angama-60% eChina.
Asijwayele izindlela zokungeza amanani entela. Izisulu ezithathwe yizwe lami ngaphambili zaziyi: yandisa amanani entela afanayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunemikhawulo ekuhanjisweni komhlaba okungahambi kahle, okuholela ekukhuphukeni kwamanani. Umhlaba ongavamile ulingana namasentimitha ayisikhombisa "emboni yezokukhiqiza e-US. Isibonelo, inkampani yaseTesla yaseMusk ayikwazi ukwenza ngaphandle kokutholakala komhlaba okungavamile. Muva nje, imikhiqizo ye-rubidium iveziwe i-skyrocked, phakathi kwalokhoI-PrafeOdymium Neyodymium Oxideikhuphuke ngo-60,000 yuan ngethani ngalinye, ukukhuphuka okungaphezulu kwe-14%. I-Rubidium iyinto ebaluleke kakhulu ye-tesla motors futhi iyisihluthulelo sokwenza ngcono ukusebenza kahle kwezimoto kanye nokusebenza. Ngaphezu kwalokho, amarokhethi athuthukiswe ngamandla ama-misk ngokuqinile nawo ahlukaniswa kusuka emhlabeni ongavamile. Isibonelo, igobolondo le-rocket lidinga ukusebenzisa umhlaba ongavamileniobium, okuwumthombo ongavamile kakhulu onamathani ayi-4 kuphela ezigidi ezigcinwe ezigciniwe emhlabeni wonke. Kwenzeka ukuthi imayini ye-Obo yeBayan Obo e-Interner Mongolia, Izwe lami liyidiphozithi enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni yediphozithi emhlabeni, futhi iqukethe nenani elikhulu le-niobium nezinye izinsiza zokumbiwa. Uma ama-sino-US ukuhweba ngokuqina kwe-sina-thina qinisa ngokuzayo futhi izwe lami liphoqeleka ukuthi liqinise umhlaba walo lokuthumela ngaphandle, khona-ke izinkampani zaseMelika ezidinga imihlaba engavamile zizoba ngabampofu kakhulu.
Okwesibili, njengoba kuba nzima ngokwengeziwe ukuthi imihlaba engavamile ukungena emakethe yase-US, kungakhuthaza ubuchwepheshe bokuqala kwamabhizinisi asekhaya. Lokhu akunzima ukuqonda. Isibonelo, lapho i-United States yakhuthaza "isenzo se-biosafety" ukukhawulela amabhizinisi wemvelo wezwe lami, izwe lami landisa ucwaningo lwayo oluzimele kanye nokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe be- "Sirt gene Technology" nobunye bezobuchwepheshe, nezinye izimpumelelo ngaphambi kwezinkampani zaseMelika.
Phambilini, ososayensi beHarvard bashicilela kuphela izivivinyo zezilwane ku- "Science" kanye ne- "Nature", okufakazela ukuthi into ebalulekile ye- "Beiliyon" ingabuyisela amacembe amagundane abesilisa kwintsha yempilo yabantu. Ososayensi baseChina bahlongoza umbono omusha kule mikhawulo: ukuhlanganisa ubuchwepheshe obuhlukile ngezingxenye ezahlukahlukene zomzimba womuntu, ngaleyo ndlela bakhule "i-BeilISIN" ngempilo yesikhathi eside, ukufeza umzila ohlanganisa ukulungiswa kwamandla isikhathi eside kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwamandla okuqhuma kwesikhathi eside. Manje lokhu kufinyelelwa kungene kwi-JD.com yami, i-Tmall namanye amapulatifomu. Lapho abathengi baseShayina bekhala ngokuthi 'bazwa ubungqabavu bobusha "futhi" banamandla amaningi phakathi nosuku "abathengi bamanye amazwe bakuthola kunzima ukuthinta le mpumelelo lesayensi nezobuchwepheshe. Naphezu kwemikhawulo yakwamanye amazwe, ubuchwepheshe bezokumbiwa phansi kwezwe lami elivamile buthuthukise phambili emhlabeni. Lokhu kuholele esimweni esinamahloni emhlabeni waseMelika ongavamile: ngenxa yokuntuleka kobuchwepheshe, cishe ama-90% omhlaba angavamile aseMelika adinga ukuthunyelwa ezweni lami ukuze acubungulwe ezweni elihle.
Ngesikhathi sokugcina sikaTrump, wenza okuthile okulimaza yena. Ngaleso sikhathi, ama-80% omhlaba ongandile e-United States kwadingeka angeniswe eChina. Ngalesi sizathu, uTrump uhlongoza "ekuqinisekisweni" ezweni lami futhi avumele izwe lisungula imboni yaseMhlabeni engavamile.
Thatha izimayini ze-lithium e-United States njengesibonelo. Yize izinqolobane zezimayini ze-lithium e-United States ziphakeme njengamathani ayizigidi ezingama-40, kunenkampani eyodwa kuphela ebizwa ngokuthi yi-Silver Peak enobuchwepheshe bokunyenyela nokukhishwa kwamathani akhipha unyaka, kanye nokukhishwa konyaka kungamathani angama-5,000 kuphela. Uma uhlelo lukaTrump lulandelwa ngempela, luzothatha okungenani iminyaka engama-8,000 ukuze ukhiphe. Ngakho-ke, i-United States iye yathumela inqwaba yomhlaba ongavamile ezweni lami. Ngo-2019, i-United States imbiwe cishe amathani angama-26,000 omhlaba ongandile, kwathunyelwa kuwo amathani acishe abe yi-24, abese echitha inani eliphakeme lokuthenga emuvaimihlaba engavamile. Isizathu salesi simo ukuthi izwe lami selisungule ubuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza kanye nezezimboni, kanti amanje e-United States ngokusobala ngemuva. Ochwepheshe bengozi yaseMelika baphinde baveza ukuthi cishe akunakwenzeka ukuthi i-United States ikwazi ukusungula i-mineral supply chain. Ngoba izindleko zabasebenzi bokuqeqeshwa ziphezulu, umkhawulo wezobuchwepheshe wezokumbiwa phansi nokusebenza futhi uphakeme, futhi ukuhanjiswa okuphezulu nokuphansi kwancike kakhulu emazweni asentshonalanga. Ukwenza izinto zibe zimbi kakhulu e-United States, imibiko yezindaba ngoNovemba 4 ithe izindawo ezingandile zaseMyanmar emhlabeni zivaliwe, futhi izinsiza zomhlaba ezingavamile ziba nzima ngokwengeziwe.
Ukuze anciphise ukuncika emhlabeni ongavamile wezwe, uTrump kushiwo nokuthi uzothembela kwimithombo yamafutha yaseMelika ukuyokwakha izimoto zikawoyela, futhi ngesikhathi somkhankaso, wathi uzoqeda inqubomgomo yoxhaso lwezimoto zikagesi zaseMelika. Umhlaba ongavamile kungenzeka ube yisizathu esenza angasekeli imboni yemoto kagesi futhi ukhetha izimoto zikaphethiloli zendabuko. Musk, omsekela ngemuva kwezigcawu, futhi wabeka phambili umbono wokuhlanzeka: Ukumemezela ukuthi ubuchwepheshe bemoto ye-TESLA okulandelayo buzolahla ngokuphelele izinto zomhlaba ezingavamile. Kepha emcabangweni, imihlaba engavamile iseyinto edingekayo yezimoto zikagesi. Sekucishe kube yiminyaka emibili selokhu misk "upende iphayi", futhi akuzange kube nezindaba ngentuthuko yocwaningo yale moto. Uma umhlaba ongavamile usengumthombo obalulekile wamasu ngokuzayo, futhi i-US igcizelela indlela yayo, khona-ke musk angaqhubeka nokulalela uTrump futhi akhiqize izimoto zikaphethiloli.
Isikhathi sePosi: Nov-11-2024