Looking at the rare earth market this week (July 17-21), the fluctuation of light rare earths is relatively stable, and the continuation of supplementary mining of praseodymium neodymium oxide stopped the weakness in the middle of the week, although the overall trading atmosphere is still relatively cold. Medium and heavy rare earth dysprosium is rising unilaterally, showing a unique and rapid trend in the clouds.
July was originally a traditional off-season, but rare earth prices exceeded expectations. Although downstream orders did not improve significantly, raw material replenishment continued. From the perspective of praseodymium and neodymium, after long-term weakness and several price fluctuations, downstream procurement has been restrained, and metal smelting enterprises have also reasonably controlled inventory to avoid high inventory pressure. The change in delivery methods of large factories in July has led to an increase in the purchasing heat of praseodymium and neodymium oxide. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide fluctuates between 445000 yuan/ton, and spot inventory is slightly tight. The upward exploration is weak, and the downward correction is hindered. The fluctuation is stable or initial results may be achieved. From the perspective of dysprosium, no matter how the market news is fermented, Dysprosium(III) oxide rose nearly 7% this week. The high level of bullish sentiment led to an increase in the number of goods available for sale. The increasingly tight spot and short-term upward prediction made Dysprosium(III) oxide the only MVP in the whole market this week.
As of July 21st, some rare earth products have quoted prices of 452-457 thousand yuan/ton for praseodymium neodymium oxide, with mainstream transactions in the middle; Metal praseodymium neodymium is 55-555 thousand yuan/ton, near the mainstream transaction low point, and some trading enterprises with tight spot prices can offer discounts for shipment; Dysprosium(III) oxide was 2.28-2.3 million yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction was near the high level; The inversion of dysprosium iron and Dysprosium(III) oxide is still deepening, and the quotation is 2.19-2.2 million yuan/ton; Driven by dysprosium and due to weak demand, terbium oxide is priced at 7.15-7.25 million yuan/ton, with mainstream transactions near low levels; Gadolinium(III) oxide is 258-262 thousand yuan/ton, the mainstream is in the middle; Gadolinium iron is 245-248000 yuan/ton, with the mainstream ranking at a low level; Holmium(III) oxide 53-54 million yuan/ton; Holmium iron costs 55-560000 yuan/ton.
This week, the rate of increase in praseodymium and neodymium is relatively slow, and it tends to stabilize in the later stage. The trading volume has decreased compared to last week. In order to avoid hanging upside down, metal factories have naturally risen under cost pressure. In addition to long-term cooperation, downstream demand for individual orders is constantly lowering prices, but they have also had to passively increase purchase prices; Except for Dysprosium(III) oxide, the heat of heavy rare earth is generally not high, and the profit of metal smelting is severely compressed, so the material ratio is used to make up for processing. If there is no corresponding situation, they prefer not to report. Overall, the operating pressure of metal enterprises has not been alleviated.
Last weekend, the news that Tengchong was temporarily closed stimulated various explorations at the beginning of the week. As the mentality gradually eased, and Myanmar's mines imported 34240 tons in the first half of the year, there was no shortage of ore in the short term. The market's "excitement" for medium and heavy rare earths returned to demand.
There are many key points to consider in the later stages: firstly, can Tengchong pass customs next week and can the ore prices that have been pushed down to the floor be reversed after they are firm? Can the cost of raw ore separation be reversed. There was a lot of news about the situation in northern Myanmar over the weekend, but according to customs statistics, Laos imported 2719 tons of rare earth minerals in the first half of this year. Secondly, the quota indicators for the second half of the year are about to be announced, and will there still be an increase in the quota for light rare earths. Thirdly, the tension in trade between China and the United States, especially the restrictions imposed by the United States on mid to high-end fields, is undeniable. Although the United States has plans to limit investment controls to only new technologies this week, it creates conditions for favorable policies and increases the possibility of rare earth verification, storage, and other activities.
Later prediction: Currently, the support for medium and heavy rare earths is still in place, and overall stability can still be expected in the short term. Based on feedback from the procurement end of the industrial chain, not short selling and cautious locking may be the top priority to avoid price fluctuations.
Post time: Jul-21-2023