The overall trend of rare earths this week (July 3-7) is not optimistic, with various series of products showing varying degrees of significant decline at the beginning of the week. However, the weakness of mainstream products has slowed down in the later stage. Although there is still room for a downward trend in future expectations, there may be differences in magnitude and direction.
The increase in selling of praseodymium neodymium oxide and metals, as well as the increase in profit margins for shipments, has once again exacerbated the market's competitive mentality. The lowest price of this week appeared at the beginning of the week, with transaction prices constantly approaching the purchase price, and the purchase cost is only lower without a minimum. However, in terms of actual supply, it did not develop to such a weak point. After intense bidding, the factory began to adhere to the bottom line. In the middle and later stages of the week, during the frequent inquiries of fill orders and long-term associations, the transaction of praseodymium neodymium products gradually approached the middle level.
The prices of dysprosium and terbium products have not unexpectedly declined this week. Without the protection of the group, dysprosium and terbium products have returned to their original track this week. The correction in import ore prices has once again affected spot oxides, and a small amount of low inquiry and low mining of dysprosium iron and metal terbium has once again lowered the market price.
From this perspective, the main reason for this decline is not only that demand is in a cold period, but also that the weakening of expectations in the industry has exacerbated the panic mentality of cargo holders, leading to rush shipments.
As of July 7th, the quotation and transaction status of various series of products: praseodymium neodymium oxide is 445000 to 45000 yuan/ton, with the transaction center near the low point. Metal praseodymium neodymium is 545000 to 55000 yuan/ton, with transaction close to a low level; Dysprosium(III) oxide: 20000-2020000 yuan/ton; Dysprosium iron 1.98-2 million yuan/ton; Terbium oxide is 7.1 to 7.3 million yuan/ton, with a small amount of transactions near the low level and factories at the high level; Metal terbium 9.45-9.65 million yuan/ton; Gadolinium(III) oxide 253-25500 yuan/ton; 24-245000 yuan/ton of gadolinium iron; Holmium(III) oxide: 56-570000 yuan/ton; 58-590000 yuan/ton of holmium iron; Erbium(III) oxide is 258-263 thousand yuan/ton.
After experiencing intense bidding last week, the industry's mentality has gradually eased and stabilized this week. Some supplementary purchases have temporarily stopped their weakness. Although the overall trading atmosphere is still cold, major factories have adhered to the bottom line, causing the price of praseodymium and neodymium to fluctuate upwards but with weaker strength. In terms of small soil analysis, after the price of praseodymium and neodymium climbed from the bottom of 430000 yuan/ton to the price level of 500000 yuan/ton in this round, in the process of upward and downward adjustment, the initial low level supply of goods has been vigorously cleared, and the resistance effect of cost pressure highlights the signs of price stabilization. Although demand is weak, there is no obvious or synchronous willingness to reduce waste and ore prices. Separation enterprises, especially southern separation enterprises, are under heavy pressure on raw praseodymium and neodymium.
Although dysprosium and terbium have been snatched up by bulk cargo, their inventory is relatively concentrated. From a single perspective, dysprosium products have risen from 1.86 million yuan/ton in mid to late April, with a large time and span. Low level supply still has an impact on the panic state; However, the current price of terbium products is comparable to the price at the end of July 2021. After two years of high level gaming, there are not many low-priced bulk goods in the market. Furthermore, new inventory is more concentrated, and Xiaotu believes that it still has strong market control potential.
There was no excessive demand in the third quarter, and the magnetic material industry is still likely to focus on just in demand procurement. The adjustment of quotas and concentrate prices for light rare earths in the second half of the year may affect the direction of praseodymium neodymium; After the preparation and mining of alloy grade metals, the demand for heavy rare earths has significantly weakened, and there is still a possibility of a slow downward trend. Of course, there is a possibility of policy benefits, and the subsequent trend may face many challenges.
Post time: Jul-13-2023