This week (11.13-11.17, the same below), the rare earth market began to show signs of turning around after the previous temporary stability. During this period, pessimistic news surged on the market, with large praseodymium neodymium enterprises no longer protecting the market and Myanmar rare earths still clearing customs. Downstream procurement was temporarily on the sidelines, with trading companies taking the lead and quickly falling near the northern listed prices. The market is approaching a stable outlook over the weekend.
From a regular perspective, the market in the middle of the fourth quarter is mostly on a static wait-and-see basis. After the previous peak correction, prices have mostly reached a trough and risen again in fluctuations. This week's trend of rare earth is more obvious. From representative praseodymium neodymium products, the peak correction has started since reaching a high of 535000 yuan/ton in mid September. From the negative impact of market confidence and emotional laxity at the beginning of this week, the fatigue and exhaustion of high prices are evident, The downward speed of mainstream rare earth products represented by praseodymium neodymium has begun to accelerate.
As of Friday, the quotations for major rare earth oxide products are 495000 to 498000 yuan/ton of praseodymium neodymium oxide, with a month on month decrease of 15000 yuan/ton; Neodymium oxide is 51-515000 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 5000 yuan/ton; Dysprosium oxide is 2.52-2.53 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 50000 yuan/ton compared to the low point on a month on month basis; Terbium oxide is 7.4 to 7.45 million yuan/ton, with a decrease of 300000 yuan/ton compared to the previous month; Gadolinium oxide is priced at 257-2600 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10000 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. Cerium oxide is priced at 0.5-5200 yuan/ton, the only product that has increased by 21% compared to the end of last month.
During the early weekend, due to the lack of order volume, the actions of large enterprises to protect the market were a drop in the bucket. From the panic of a small number of traders to the fact that factories have also started to offer profits and collect payments, the transaction price is constantly pulling down the market price trend, and the market stability is shaking significantly. The speed of running a correction has made downstream wait-and-see hesitant sentiment stronger, with very few transactions and more obvious price suppression attempts. Affected by this, manufacturers' quotations have been simultaneously lowered. As the weekend approaches, the stabilizing attitude of the big enterprise has once again given the market a shot in the arm. The extremely low prices have begun to be rational, and the overall transaction changes have slightly improved.
As of Friday, the quotes for major rare earth metals are 61-615000 yuan/ton for praseodymium neodymium metal, a decrease of 20000 yuan/ton from a low point on a month on month basis; Cerium metal reached 245-25500 yuan/ton, maintaining a stable month on month basis; Dysprosium iron is 2.43 to 2.45 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 50000 yuan/ton from the low point on a month on month basis; Gadolinium iron is 245-248000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5000 yuan/ton compared to the previous month.
This week, the macro par value should pay attention to three points: the bottoming rebound of Sino US relations, the bottoming rebound of US bond yields, and the bottoming rebound of China's debt problem. This indicates that in the larger environment, at the loose monetary level, the market may have a positive response after taking a breather.
This week, the three points that need to be paid attention to at the micro level are: increasing financial pressure at the end of the year, shortened downstream replenishment cycles and quantity expectations, and the coexistence of tight and inverted metal spot prices. This indicates that at the end of the year, with the demand for capital return, bidding will become increasingly fierce. Although the factory's price reduction is not significant and the scope of transactions has also narrowed, the strategy of trading enterprises to cut meat, return blood, and make up for it has also disrupted the relatively weak market rhythm. Compared to the tightening of the spot price of metal praseodymium neodymium, the loosening of oxides has a greater impact on the market.
This week, the trend of heavy rare earths has been divided. Although dysprosium and terbium are both on the decline, one is running at a speed of 70 miles, and the other is "silent acceleration, the footsteps of terbium". Moreover, the metal, which is already upside down, is difficult not to be in an awkward position.
Unlike other non-ferrous metals, rare earth products, with their unique resources and political attributes, have a more significant impact on policies and large enterprises. At present, when market regulation is at the upper hand, supply and demand and emotional factors guide price fluctuations, which is sensitive; But once the attitude of large enterprises is clear, the market will also shift its direction, which is rational.
Post time: Nov-20-2023