Rare Earth Market Trends and Future Prospects

Introduction

The rare earth market has been experiencing cautious trading, marked by a weak but stable operational stance. This article delves into the current market dynamics, recent developments, and future outlook for the rare earth industry.

Current Market Dynamics

Price Trends in March

• ‌Overall Weakness‌: In March, mainstream rare earth product prices exhibited overall weakness. The month began with large-scale magnetic material enterprises completing centralized tender purchases, temporarily reducing overall market demand.
• ‌Mid-to-Late Month Fluctuations‌: News of Myanmar's reopening spread, further weakening market sentiment. Holders locked in costs, gradually increasing shipments, and resulting in ample market supply. Metal and magnetic material enterprises sought low-priced purchases to replenish inventories, leading to synchronized volume increases in market transactions.

Segment Analysis

‌Oxide Market‌:

• ‌Praseodymium-Neodymium (Pr-Nd)‌: Prices remained firm, but high-priced transactions were generally subdued. Holders locked in costs and sold, with a small volume of low-priced transactions occurring, slightly shifting the price center but maintaining overall stability.
• ‌Dysprosium-Terbium (Dy-Tb)‌: Prices fell significantly due to Myanmar's reopening news and decreased application demand in recent years. Downstream enterprises purchased mainly based on rigid demand, with market transaction prices remaining low.
• ‌Cerium Oxide (CeO₂)‌: Prices experienced a slight correction due to some holders offering small volumes for sale in mid-March, affecting market sentiment. However, supplies remained tight, with order delivery times around 30 days.

‌Metal Market‌: Metal enterprises locked in orders, primarily selling through long-term agreements. Market spot quotes were firm, but trading volumes were limited. Notably, Inner Mongolia Baogang Rare Earth International Trade Co., Ltd. conducted a competitive bidding transaction for 10 tons of cerium metal through the Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange on March 28, with a transaction price of RMB 29,000 per ton.

‌Scrap Market‌: Holders had a strong willingness to sell but quoted high prices. Separation enterprises purchased at lower prices based on available options.

‌Magnetic Material Market‌: Magnetic material enterprises had relatively adequate orders, with large enterprises maintaining an operating rate of over 80%. Raw material demand subsequently increased, but intense price competition within the industry resulted in severe cost inversions for raw products, prompting cautious raw material procurement.

• On March 6, Huahong Technology announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Xintai Technology, and its subsidiaries, Wanhong High-tech and Jishui Jincheng, signed a 2025 annual cooperation agreement with Northern Rare Earth for the procurement of Pr-Nd products. The agreement aims to ensure the stability of raw material supply and business operations for Xintai Technology and its subsidiaries.
• According to a study published in the peer-reviewed journal Chinese Rare Earths by researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, China's share of the global rare earth raw material market is expected to decline from the current 62% to 28% by 2035 and further to 23% by 2040. Mineral developments in Africa, South America, and Australia could reshape the entire industry.
• U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States would soon sign a rare earth agreement with Ukraine and issued an executive order to increase the production of critical minerals, ensuring U.S. security and stability in the rare earth supply chain.
• On March 24, Meng Fanying, Chairman of the Baotou Steel (Group) Corporation, led a delegation to visit China Rare Earth Group. Both parties discussed deepening collaborative working mechanisms and promoting high-quality development of the rare earth industry, reaching a consensus on accelerating technological innovation and complementary advantages in the rare earth industry.

Although demand from emerging sectors is growing, traditional demand remains sluggish, resulting in limited overall demand growth. Market participants are cautiously optimistic, anticipating limited fluctuations in rare earth prices in the short term, with the market likely to continue its stable operational trend.

Long-Term Prospects

• ‌Emerging Sector Demand‌: The rapid development of emerging sectors such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economies is expected to drive sustained demand growth for rare earth permanent magnetic materials, presenting new development opportunities for the rare earth market.
• ‌Industry Regulation‌: Strengthening domestic regulation of the rare earth industry and further concentration of the supply structure are conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of the industry.

Conclusion

The rare earth market is currently characterized by cautious trading and weak but stable operations. While short-term market sentiment remains cautious due to limited demand growth, long-term prospects appear promising. Emerging sector demand, coupled with tight domestic regulation, point to sustained growth opportunities for the rare earth industry.

Stay tuned for the latest updates and insights on the rare earth market!

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