This week (10.7-13) is known as the longest trading week in history, and seven trading days have also witnessed confidence soaring to a skeptical heart and market fluctuations.
On the 7th, Northern Rare Earth was listed in October. Although the previously raised expectation was foreseeable, when 608000 yuan/ton of metal praseodymium neodymium was listed, compared with September, 20000 yuan/ton was raised, which further boosted the confidence of the rapid price run. After the praseodymium neodymium oxide once again reached 535000 yuan/ton, themetal praseodymium neodymium rose to 660000 yuan/ton. With the improvement of confidence and the sound of the tightening of the Association, the downstream began to just need supplementary procurement, and the higher prices were gradually realized. The tightening of spot prices accompanied the market at the beginning of the week, with various transaction news of 535000 yuan/ton flooding both before and after.
Subsequently, high level trading was limited and although metal prices were constrained by inventory and demand, weaknesses in cost and acceptance began to emerge. Starting in the middle of the week, there was no unexpected pullback in prices. However, due to psychological expectations and confidence remaining, among various concerns, the prices of mainstream rare earth products were fluctuating around during the exploration period. The fatigued trading day caused a slowdown in the pace of trading, as well as an increase in quotes for scrap and imported minerals, diluting the market's confidence in continuing to move upwards.
As of October 13th, the quotation for some rare earth oxide products is 528000 to 532000 yuan/ton of praseodymium neodymium oxide; Neodymium oxide: 532-537 thousand yuan/ton; Lanthanum oxide ranging from 0.4 to 4200 yuan/ton; Cerium oxide: 42-4500 yuan/ton; Dysprosium oxide 2.68-2.71 million yuan/ton; 840-8.45 million yuan/ton of terbium oxide; Gadolinium oxide is 292-295000 yuan/ton, and holmium oxide is 63-635000 yuan/ton.
Overall, by the end of the week, the oxide market remained stable as a whole, with mainstream trading levels relatively close to quotations. There is still confidence in the stable price support of the separation plant. Although it has experienced trading companies monetizing profits this week, the separation plant's high raw material prices and strong trading methods suggest that the factory's price concessions are not strong, and the stalemate and volatility may continue.
As of October 13th, the quotation for some rare earth metals is 65-655 thousand yuan/ton of praseodymium neodymium metal; Cerium metal: 24000-25000 yuan/ton; Dysprosium iron 2.6-2.61 million yuan/ton; Metal terbium 10.6-10.8 million yuan/ton; Gadolinium iron is 275-285000 yuan/ton.
This week, the metal market continued its previous stable strategy of easy upward adjustment and difficult downward adjustment. The upside down situation of praseodymium and neodymium eased at the beginning of the week, so there were frequent orders promotion actions. There were a small amount of replenishment behavior in the middle of the week, and the stabilizing price fluctuated on the cost line. The downward trend of praseodymium and neodymium is no longer significant, but it may be difficult to step up after the leading enterprise long-term association's leadership is increasingly strengthened.
At the beginning of the week, dysprosium iron was hindered by metal factories' unified quotations of 2.65 million yuan/ton. However, over the weekend, rationality returned, and the alloys of dysprosium and gadolinium were severely inverted. Downstream, except for praseodymium neodymium alloy, it seems that the increase in heavy rare earth metals is still difficult to accept, and there is still great hesitation in restrained price pressure buying. Heavy rare earth metals seem to have become a battlefield for upstream and downstream confrontation, with prices at high levels but still weakening.
Future forecast: Domestic new production is slowly increasing, and there is no conclusive conclusion on whether the Middle East region, as a major automobile exporting country of China, will be affected by the war. There is no conclusive conclusion on whether Russia and Ukraine will ignite another war between Palestine and Israel overseas.
Post time: Oct-16-2023