Market Overview
February 2025 marked a rare occurrence in the past three years, with rare earth prices continuing to rise after the Chinese New Year. Several key factors contributed to this trend:
- Supply Constraints: The closure of the China-Myanmar border led to lower pre-holiday oxide stock levels. As magnetic material companies replenished their inventories, prices experienced an upward push.
- Increased Demand: Terminal application companies boosted orders while stockpiling materials at lower costs, strengthening demand for magnetic materials and stabilizing prices.
- Policy Impact: The release of two regulatory drafts— "Measures for the Administration of Total Control of Rare Earth Mining and Rare Earth Smelting and Separation (Interim)" and "Measures for the Administration of Information Traceability of Rare Earth Products (Interim)"— created expectations of a tightening supply, further supporting price increases.
Oxide Market Trends
- Praseodymium-Neodymium Oxide: Despite weak post-holiday replenishment demand and sluggish trading, praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices remained high. Large manufacturers held firm on quotations, while traders sold at elevated prices, resulting in limited actual transactions.
- Terbium Oxide: Low inventory levels and strong purchasing interest led to price increases.
- Dysprosium Oxide: Market prices remained relatively weak.
Price Movements:
- Praseodymium-Neodymium Oxide rose from 420,000 yuan/ton post-holiday to 450,000 yuan/ton, a 7.14% increase.
- Praseodymium-Neodymium Metal climbed from 512,000 yuan/ton before the holiday to 548,000 yuan/ton, rising 7%.
Rare Earth Metal Market
Metal company quotations were strongly influenced by firm oxide prices. Although post-holiday purchases by magnetic material firms were subdued, metal companies had limited stock due to increased orders, keeping prices stable. After February 19, metal prices surged in line with oxide price increases.
Key Market Movements:
- Companies sought low-cost supplies amid rising prices.
- Cerium metal prices followed the upward trend of cerium oxide.
- Actual transaction volumes remained conservative as the market awaited stabilization.
Magnetic Material Demand
- Large and mid-sized magnetic material enterprises operated at high capacity with stable orders.
- Smaller firms continued fulfilling pre-holiday orders and showed reluctance toward current high prices.
- Inventory replenishment strategies became selective, keeping raw material stock levels at a 15-20 day safe threshold.
- Terminal application companies cautiously navigated price transmissions, maintaining a rigid procurement approach.
Price Updates for Mainstream Rare Earth Products (as of February 27, 2025)
Product | Price (yuan/ton) |
---|---|
Lanthanum Oxide | 4,200 |
Cerium Oxide | 10,000 |
Lanthanum Cerium Metal | 16,900 |
Praseodymium-Neodymium Oxide | 449,700 |
Neodymium metal | 568,600 |
Praseodymium Neodymium metal | 548,500 |
Dysprosium Oxide | 1,726,700 |
Terbium Oxide | 6,298,100 |
Gadolinium Oxide | 164,800 |
Holmium Oxide | 465,300 |
Policy and Industry Developments
1. China Tightens Rare Earth Supply Control (Feb 24, 2025)
- The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduced new measures incorporating imported ores and monazite into quota management, tightening supply constraints.
- Large rare earth groups are now exclusively qualified for compliant production, promoting industry consolidation.
- Myanmar’s rare earth imports may decline 30-42% in 2025, exacerbating medium and heavy rare earth shortages globally.
2. Myanmar's Rare Earth Supply Falls Below Expectations (Feb 24, 2025)
- Due to political instability and resource depletion risks, Myanmar’s rare earth output is expected to drop 30% year-over-year, with imports forecasted at 24,000 tons in 2025.
- Coupled with China’s "Two New" policies (New Energy & New Industry), rare earth supply-demand dynamics are improving, supporting sector growth.
3. Rising Demand for Rare Earth Magnet Materials (Jan 14, 2025)
- The growing adoption of new energy vehicles (targeting 10 million sales) and robotics is driving demand for rare earth permanent magnets.
- Global demand for high-performance NdFeB magnets is projected to reach 174,000 tons, potentially shifting praseodymium-neodymium oxide into a tight supply balance by 2025.
4. Russia Announces Rare Earth Expansion Plan (Feb 25, 2025)
- President Putin emphasized rare earth industry development as key to Russia’s economic and defense strategy.
- Russia aims to double rare earth production and establish a full industrial processing chain by 2030.
- Potential cooperation opportunities with the US and other partners remain on the table.
Market Outlook: Recovery and Policy Tailwinds
1. Price Stabilization in Light Rare Earths
- Demand from new energy vehicles, home appliances, and industrial motors is expected to drive praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices toward a stable range.
2. Heavy Rare Earth Volatility Continues
- Myanmar’s unresolved mineral supply issues could lead to price fluctuations in dysprosium and terbium.
- Geopolitical factors and quota allocations will play a key role in shaping market movements.
Conclusion
February saw the rare earth market bottom out and reverse, driven by the "sawtooth effect" of policy shifts and demand recovery. As the industry enters March, a critical window for policy realization and terminal demand expansion, price transmission across the supply chain is expected to improve. This could trigger a phase of simultaneous volume and price increases, benefiting key market players.
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Post time: Mar-04-2025